I think it’s already become less effective, and less frequently used as a result. Here’s my reasons:
Points without value. Gaining points while doing a task is great… if they are actually worth something. The problem is, unless the points map to something that is perceived to be actually valuable to users (like airline miles) then the points are meaningless. Lots of gamification “scores” are like that, and so they have minimal influence and utility.
Inappropriate use. Years ago I designed a UI that used gamification to signup for electronic bills. We tested it with users, and eventually decided that it wouldn’t make sense because of the mental model of the customers (paying bills wasn’t a “positive” experience, and so adding the gamification layer annoyed more than added value. Of course, after I left that company the design team that followed went ahead and did the same thing, to mixed results.
Too many companies are doing this same thing – I saw an app that “gamified” e-mail and it just didn’t work. Again, ramification that is applied as a “bandaid” to a design without considering the goal of the user… it distracts.
Flat design. Part of the flat design aesthetic is to be “authentically digital” and to do away from distracting elements and skeumorphic design. Lots of gamification approaches are… well, distracting elements and use skeumorphic design. I think it’s impacted the application of
Analytics. We know KNOW what works and doesn’t thanks to advanced analytics. Organizations who tried ramification two years ago now know whether it works or not, and in many cases… it didn’t (due primarily to the first two points I make above). Companies who do bad ramification (and therefore don’t see positive impact) don’t try again… they give up, and other designers will follow suit.
Will gamification ever “go away?” No… but I think it will be found to be a specialized, targeted technique, and no “magic bullet.”