(NOTE: last Apple post for a while, as I move on to my other fetish: Disney!)
I’ve put together some ideas/features that can/will be added to ye old iPhone, along with my guesstimate as to the probability of such functionality actually being added. If I’m wrong, I’m hedging my bets appropriately. If I’m right, I can brag about my prescience throughout the blogosphere. Enjoy!
e-books
The screen is fantastic for reading text, either web pages or e-mails. Why not e-books? Imagine sample chapters distributed like podcasts via itunes or the whole book as a PDF… Imagine a partnership with Amazon to buy e-books… Imagine Apple offering the Product Gutenberg library through the itunes music store. Wow.
This will definitely happen if Sony ticks off Steve Jobs (to cripple future sales of Sony’s e-book reader device).
Probability: 50%
Video Recording
No brainer, actually. Apple won’t let any competing product/smart phone promote a feature it does not offer, especially with the emphasis on video that Apple is making with the new iMovie and partnership with Google/YouTube.
The key will be this – will it capture audio well enough? If Steverino determines the microphone is not good enough to match the video with the 1st gen hardware, that may mean video recording won’t be out until the 2nd gen iPhone,
Probability: 80%
Flash support
I think it’ll be here around the release of Leopard, especially with the new support of the H.264 video codec (promoted and loved by Apple) in the new version of Flash.
Probability: 70%
iMap e-mail support
Support of corporate exchange server e-mail? Yup, especially if sales start to fall below expectations. Got to get those corporate customers.
Probability: 65%
File support/file browser
People like to use their iPods as portable storage drives – I think Apple would be stupid to prevent this usage/support the need. However, I think that Apple might need tight control of the storage space to support caching for Safari, Google maps, etc., so to maintain the stable user experience they may avoid adding this feature (3rd party software already supports this).
Probability: 35%
Voice Memos
Another no-brainer BUT Apple has never focused on this feature for iPods (and third-party vendors have had to step in). I think Apple may decide that this is a “nice-to-have” feature and may not have a high enough user base/need to warrant development.
Probability: 30%
Increased Stability
My IPhone crashes twice a day when I am multitasking (playing music as I web surf) which is still an improvement from the first two weeks I had it (before the bug fixes were pushed down via iTunes). I expect the stability improvements to continue via regular updates.
Probability: 100%
Hacks foiled
Lots of people have hacked the iPhone to add things such as custom ring tones, apps, etc. Apple will, unlike with the Apple TV, stop these projects via updates, because some of the hacks (like ring tones) cut into future profit opportunities (see below) and contractual obligations to AT&T.
Probability: 90%
Ring-tones (via iTunes Store)
Gonna happen. Ring-tones is a billion dollar industry, believe it or not, and Apple wants a piece of that pie. I’d be surprised if it isn’t out by the end of September with a new version of iTunes.
Probability: 100%
iWeb publishing
Publishing blog entries via e-mail is old hat to some, as WordPress has had a plug in for a while. Imagine if Apple offered that as an option – write a note on your iPhone and then, with one click, post an entry to your iWeb site (hosted on .mac, of course). It fits with the same paradigm that the new “publish to .mac gallery” function for photos does, and promotes iWeb and .mac (which is in Apple’s corporate interest – you know, the one involving squeezing another $100 out of the user base very year).
Probability: 75%
“Event” photo galleries
Expect to be able to organize/load photos to your iPhone via the “Event” construct/meta data just added in iLife ’08.
Probability: 90%
Detailed Real-Time Traffic
It’s all about the data. If Google maps starts to offer similar detailed real-time traffic service to what Yahoo offers then the iPhone hopefully will roll it out as well. I personally would love to see this one.
Probability: 60%
Alternate Routes
More map stuff – Again, Google has offered some cool stuff lately with maps and it would be nice to have alternate routes on the maps app on the iPhone.
Probability: 60%
GPS
Too much power needed, too much latency, no real reason to add it, even if competing smart phones have it.
Probability: 5%
Accessories for car stereos (i.e. FM Transmitters)
Unlikely. Too much RF interference from the phone to connect to the car stereo with an FM transmitter like many iPods have.
Probability: 5%
To-Do Lists
Yeah, everyone complained about the lack of a to-do list when the iPhone came out – well, I think Apple was simply waiting for Leopard, the new version of OS X, to be released, in order to check this particular “to do” off of their iPhone feature list. I think we’ll see To Do’s by the time Leopard ships in October.
Probability: 95%
2nd Gen version with more storage and features (and cheaper)
In case you’re new to this, welcome to Apple’s product life cycle. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.
Expect a 2nd gen iPhone by, at the latest, spring.
Probability: 100%
Calendar improvements
The calendar sync is awkward (all new appointments made on the iPhone are listed under a “calendar” list in iCal). This will be fixed.
Probability: 100%
Games
I don’t know. The touch screen offers a unique design challenge for game designers and Apple may limit the work on this until the controller experience is “nailed”. I think it will happen, but not anytime soon.
Probability: 55%
SDK for (some) developers
I think we will never see an open SDK for developers to write apps for the iPhone. HOWEVER, Apple has and will promote development guidelines to some key partners (cough GOOGLEcough) and I fully expect these partners to roll out functionality for the device that Apple will promote as a new feature they will “own.”
I also think this “internal” SDK will be leaked and posted on the ‘net within a year.
Probability: 95%
External SDK
Depends on sales and Apple management. I dought Steve ceding any control of the iPhone experience to any third-party developer. Reference: the last six years of the iPod product lifecycle.
Probability: 5%
SOMETHING ELSE
I have every confidence in Apple’s ability to surprise people. Heck they can make the dang thing a remote for the Apple TV if they want to! So I’m sure that the designers in Cupertino have plenty of tricks up their sleeve and I look forward to the next “One More Thing” for the iPhone.
Probability: 100%