Some theories…
Apple makes hardware that allows you to consume content… content that you collect and love and revisit. Music, movies, TV shows, games… we have a lot of "stuff." Apple has a distribution network that lets you instantly buy more stuff, and it's much easier than going to a store and buying a physical disc. It's a closed and very profitable ecosystem, because it is absolutely optimized to be as friction-free and personalized as possible.
Compare this to cable or satellite TV: it's also closed, but it's barely personalizable and expensive. Consumers pay for dozens of channels that they never watch, many don't have the ability to pause or record programs, and even then back-catalog content isn't readily available… and when it is it's an incredibly limited selection.
Apple has almost all the pieces to transform TV already:
- A deep catalog of content via iTunes
- "Season passes" of your favorite shows
- A personal library available on all your devices
- The ability to "push" games to your TV to share
- A cloud service that allows for ubiquitous sharing and redownloading of all your content
Hardware margins for TVs are thin, and Apple knows that… which is why they will be selling the experience, NOT the hardware specs. If/when they put out a TV it won't be the biggest or the best TV, but it will be plugged into a powerful ecosystem that competitors like Sony and Microsoft have been trying to build for years and it will have an experience that people WANT.
The "one more thing" that will make this revolutionary? I think it will be personalized "ad hoc" channels. You like Mythbusters? Spend $X a month and get access to the entire backchat along of every episode, available via streaming. Star Trek, The Wire, football, cooking shows? Same thing. Customers will have much more choice about what they watch, and these channels will be available on every Apple device they have, no matter where they are. And all of it will be ad-free.
Networks will still exist, you'll just "pay" for each network… or only pay for certain shows. If you want more content, then you buy more channels. And imagine a subscription to a Disney channel that would not be the Disney Channel that we see on cable, but a Disney channel that gives you access to everything the studio has ever done! Would many parents and movie fans pay a premium price for a TV that allowed you to access such a channel? You bet.
Content, content, content. It's about delivering a personalizable experience that users own and love, and just works. If any company can do this, Apple can.